Need your info based on your experience

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Need your info based on your experience

Post  sekura on Thu Aug 01, 2013 9:47 am

How many SGod will i get if i combine 150 chaos, 10 ultimate and 1 god @40% chance combine rate?

Need your information based on your experience please.

Sorry for my bad english... ^o^v

sekura
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Re: Need your info based on your experience

Post  Kirbypepe on Thu Aug 01, 2013 6:46 pm

sekura wrote:How many SGod will i get if i combine 150 chaos, 10 ultimate and 1 god @40% chance combine rate?

Need your information based on your experience please.

Sorry for my bad english... ^o^v

It's different for everyone, because the 40% is an average throughout all of the combines you've done not an absolute it's hard to tell. But assuming everything goes exactly to that percentage (i.e. in every 10 combines you get 4 success and 6 fails like the average says) then the following will happen without fusing failures:

150 chaos / 2 (since you need 2 to combine) = 75 * 0.4 (the 40% combine rate) = 30 Ultimates

30 ultimates + 10 (since you had 10 to begin with) = 40 / 2 (cause above) 20 * 0.4 (same) = 8 Gods

8 gods + 1 (since you had 1) = 9 / 2 (same as above) = 4.5 (since you can't have .5 fuses round down) 4 * 0.4 (same) = 1 S God.


So if everything went as people expect the percentage to go you'd get 1 S god with the monsters you have. However since you can have large fail combine streaks, and large succeeded combine streaks it could go up to 2 since you essentially have 1.6 (but since you can't have .6 of a monster I rounded down).

In my experience, most of the time that comes out to be true. Now you could get more if you fuse fails as well but that's more math XD (and this post already has math so no more for this one XD =X)

EDIT: Adding the failed fuses as well XD

150 / 2 = 75 * 0.4 = 30 Success Ultimates
75 - 30 = 45 chaos more due to fails / 2 = 22.5 (so 22 more fuses) 22 * 0.4 = 8.8 (so 8 more Successes) Total Success = 38-39
(assuming .8 was a success to make it a little less pessimistic XD but most cases that value doesn't make a difference as you will see)
Case success: 22 - 9 = 13 / 2 = 6.5 (so 6 more) 6*.4 = 2.4 more so Total Success = 40-41 Ultimates.
Case Fail: 22 - 8 = 14 / 2 = 7 (so 7 more) 7 * 0.4 = 2.8 more so Total Success = 40-41 Ultimates still I could go more but that's just nitpicking

40+10 (the ultimates you already had) = 50 / 2 = 25 * .4 = 10 Gods
25 - 10 = 15 ultimates due to fails / 2 = 7.5 (so 7 more fuses) 7 * 0.4 = 2.8 more so Total = 12-13 Gods
Case Success: 7 - 3 = 4 / 2 = 2 * 0.4 = 0.8 so possible extra god here 13-14
Case Fail: 7 - 2 = 5 / 2 = 2.5 so 2 * 0.4 = 0.8 so possible extra god here 13-14

12+1 (the god you already had) = 13/ 2 = 6.5 so 6 * 0.4 = 2-3 S Gods
Case Success: 6 - 3 = 3 / 2 = 1.5 so 1 * 0.4 = 0.4 so possible success here as well 3-4
Case Fail : 6-2 = 4/2 = 2 * 0.4 = 0.8 so possible success here as well 3-4

So yes if you did fuse your failures you would have 3-4 S gods and still have some chaos ultimates and gods left over (Since when the number isn't evenly divisible by 2 I remove the fuse therefore keeping the 1 monster that made it uneven)


Last edited by Kirbypepe on Thu Aug 01, 2013 9:08 pm; edited 1 time in total

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Re: Need your info based on your experience

Post  sekura on Thu Aug 01, 2013 8:15 pm

Thx for the info kirbypepe.
Look iam still so far from ssg.
Need about 6 sgods. Then i will special combine the 6 sg's.

Based on your calculation then i will need about 900 chaos.
Omg, the number looks creepy. Cant farm chaos that much. I will wait until i feel lucky enough and going rage combine.

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Re: Need your info based on your experience

Post  [Ace] Gh0st on Thu Aug 01, 2013 8:24 pm

Kirbypepe, I think your numbers are a bit pessimistic. Even if the combine rate was only 33%, sekura would still get 1 ultimate per 4 chaos (on average). So 150 chaos -> 38 ultimate -> 10 god -> 2-3 sgod.

With 40%, you'll fare a bit better, especially considering that my very quick math above doesn't account for your ultimates or gods. So I'd guess about 4 sgods.

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Re: Need your info based on your experience

Post  Kirbypepe on Thu Aug 01, 2013 8:47 pm

[Ace] Gh0st wrote:Kirbypepe, I think your numbers are a bit pessimistic.  Even if the combine rate was only 33%, sekura would still get 1 ultimate per 4 chaos (on average).  So 150 chaos -> 38 ultimate -> 10 god -> 2-3 sgod.

With 40%, you'll fare a bit better, especially considering that my very quick math above doesn't account for your ultimates or gods.  So I'd guess about 4 sgods.

Well mine was only assuming not combining failures I'm sure if you combine failures you will be bound to get more successes. Also it really depends on whether you are going to hit a streak or not. I just listed out what could potentially happen. I'm sure it could go either way. I personally have fused about 200 ancients to get 30 chaos' one day and another only needed about 140 ancients (since the percentage is the same ancients -> chaos as chaos -> ultimate. It really depends from person to person I think. But the values I gave were for the scenario assuming non repeating even distributions. (i.e. when you fuse 10 times 4 of those will for sure be succeeds and it's not up to chance).

EDIT: I updated my numbers above to show more or less what you were saying, with the combining of failures. Still assuming non repeating even distributions though (so it doesn't take into account any sort of streaks to skew the percentages in any direction)

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Re: Need your info based on your experience

Post  sekura on Fri Aug 02, 2013 1:45 am

[Ace] Gh0st wrote:Kirbypepe, I think your numbers are a bit pessimistic.  Even if the combine rate was only 33%, sekura would still get 1 ultimate per 4 chaos (on average).  So 150 chaos -> 38 ultimate -> 10 god -> 2-3 sgod.

With 40%, you'll fare a bit better, especially considering that my very quick math above doesn't account for your ultimates or gods.  So I'd guess about 4 sgods.
Glad to see that number sgods i will get... i think i will farm about 200 chaos to make sure that i will get 6 sgods... thanks for the clear information ghost...  Very Happy Very Happy Very Happy

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